Date Added: 2007-03-30
Date Modified: 2008-06-23
070329: Iran will not mail in a surrender note
Edward Pickersgill, Passing Times, 29 March 2007
document 2 of 8
the journey is always
more interesting to me
than the arrival
Guelph, Ontario, Canada
29 March 2007
Iran will not mail in a surrender note; President Bush will fail in his attempt to bluff Congress with his super veto power
A few years ago I was in some discussion with politically active anti-war veterans. They were astutely predicting that Bush Jr. would invade Iraq and get rid of the increasingly unco-operative, ex-puppet Saddam Hussein. I took the position that America might bomb the hell out of Hussein's holdings (as was done on the former Yugoslavia) but eventually they'd have to send in ground troops and that's when the U.S. body count would sky rocket.
And, as with that other notorious undeclared war in Vietnam, it would be the rising count of body bags being shipped back to the U.S. that'd turn the peace movement from occasional protesters into an actual anti-war movement with teeth that American politicians would pay attention to for a while.
Today the Bush regime is more and more exposed as being corrupt in very old fashioned ways - losing more and more support every day from its "saints and sinners" evangelical sector and appearing more and more like the bunkered down leadership in Germany back in 1945. If Washington D.C. was enrolled in a therapy program and playing that "lifeboat" game there would be a constant sound of splashing bodies being tossed from the Good Ship White House.
But its not about therapy role playing, is it? As both Houses of the U.S. Congress have passed resolutions calling for an end to U.S. action in Iraq the pseudo-Texan is putting on his best gunslinger face and threatening to veto both. In my opinion the President is bluffing and buying time till he can jerk America into a war on Iran. The increasingly cornered rat will attempt to survive by generating another "holy crusade."
Bush has never had to veto the House of Representatives nor the U.S. Senate. Its really up in the air whether he has the imperial fortitude (aka confidence in his Pentagon People) to face down Congress. In my view he knows his veto will cost him more support among Republicans who can feel the sewer water splashing around their knees. Democrat leaders in Congress may not yet have the two-third votes required to cancel a Presidential veto but if he uses the veto they may very well get the 2/3 next time... and he'll be smelling impeachment if that occurs.
Underlying all this bluff and bluster while the body count continues to soar is the simple fact that G.W. Bush has always been a chicken hawk. My money will be on his clucking sound starting to resonate quite soon.
Russia and China are grinning across the G.W. Corral and telling Bush they don't accept his intentions on Iran. Dick Cheney has his ambulance poised for his escape. Condi Rice is the only member of his Cabinet who will go all the way with him at this stage. Pelosi and Reid, Democrat leaders in Congress, can see the trickle of sweat rolling down between his eyes. (And for us it doesn't matter a tinker's damn in this moment whether they'll be kinder, gentler leaders in the long run for they can smell the power of the Oval Office. We are not factors in the formulaic equation of this moment. We are just background noise.)
What is the deciding factor for me? Iraq was an easy first round "win" that turned into a bloodbath after the victory. Iran, the only card the little emperor has left to play, is not the same as Iraq under Hussein. They will not mail in a surrender note. They will not have a goofy PR guy like "Comical Ali" (although Tony Snow has come close on occasion). Bush may hope he can bluff his way out of this in his delusions about being a gunslinging Texas tough guy with a string of executions notched on his belt but when it comes right down to it the real gunslingers will dump him.
We can and should keep practicing with our noise makers because every instinct tells me there'll be as much need for noise and action after Bush as during his turn on the world stage.
David Silberman writes: I don't know about the veto threat being a bluff. One pundit argues that if the Democrats do make Bush pull out or change his policy, it will become their war (I'm not sure if I totally agree with that) and after he vetoes it, they should give him the funding without a time line, so as to insure it will remain his and by implication, the Republican's war. This is the last thing the Republicans want (that I would agree) but what difference will it make if the Democrats lose so much of their anti-war followers that it will neutralize whatever support the Republicans lose.
As for Iran, while all the logic says that it will be a perfect diversion, the fact that Bush is so clumsy - especially with a Congress no longer blind to his actions - that I wonder if any attack on Iran will only make things worse for Bush, not better.
Norla Antinoro writes: I don't think the little tough guy is bluffing. He sees the veto as his way to nullify congress just a little harder than the signing statements. WIth them fior a while he was ignoring congress under the table, then someone started making noise about them and they became widely known and he kept using them. He will see the veto as a slight escalation. He sees it as his RIGHT to control congress and negate all opinions but his own. He really does think he is king.
I think it is in Bush's character to use his veto to prove his manhood. He is The Man - The Decider and this congress has thwarted him - it is in his character to veto. Someone may be able to influence him though and change his behavior from its natural path. So I will make no prediction about his actual behavior. But I do feel a veto is totally in character.